In partnership with AM Specialty Insurance Company and PwC, the 2025 Reinsurance News Monte Carlo Executive Roundtable report is now available to download for free.

Participants explored the sustainability of current market conditions, the outlook for the 2026 renewals and beyond, reinsurer discipline, the casualty space, as well as the role of alternative capital, MGAs, and the potential of advanced technology and AI.

Industry leaders commented on capital raises and the notable lack of new market entrants, which some suggested has helped to maintain discipline and market hardening.

As the market shifts, balance was a theme throughout the discussion, and it was interesting to hear the thoughts of re/insurers, brokers and the advisory side of the market as to what balance means for them as the reinsurance industry approaches year-end.

Roundtable participants offered some interesting thoughts on how advanced technology, notably AI, could significantly improve the competitiveness and cost-efficiency of reinsurance capital, and also explored the need to balance technological innovation with talent development and retention.

For the 2025 Reinsurance News Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous Executive Roundtable we were joined by the following participants:

• Shevawn Barder, Founder & CEO, AM Specialty Insurance Company.
• Matt Britten, Partner, Insurance, PwC.
• Amanda Lyons, CEO, Aon Reinsurance Solutions, Bermuda.
• Martin Boreham, Director of Underwriting, Head of Liability & Active Underwriter, Africa Specialty Risks.
• Chirag Shah, Global Head of Casualty, Gallagher Re.
• Jennifer Paretchan, Global Head of Distribution and Market Relations, Guy Carpenter.
• David Govrin, Group President & CEO Global Reinsurance, SiriusPoint.
• Marc Haushofer, Executive Director, International Business Development, VIG Re.

Download your copy of the 2025 Reinsurance News Monte Carlo Executive Roundtable here.

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Montador explained that at this year’s RVS, the hard discussions with clients and brokers were not the focus, suggesting that these will take place later in the year.

“There has not been the strong commitments from one side or the other, because from the beginning, the market is softer, so it means a decrease in premium,” he said. “Now, it’s about the extent of this decrease, and also the demand of new capacity, or re-emergence of older capacity with lower frequency cover and sometimes aggregates.”

Montador noted that Arundo Re is “flexible up to a certain level,” and he highlighted the need for only single digit rate reductions in certain areas, which is something feasible and understandable.

“But for us, there is a need to stay disciplined with structure. Of course, there’s talk of lower layers and the frequency cover, but we don’t want to come back to a period where you have everything that could be covered. You try and model it all, but in fact, it’s very difficult to model it. The losses are coming from places unexpected. So, we really prefer clear covers, named perils,” he said.

Adding: “There are always new things to be discovered, not only in terms of vulnerabilities, but also physically, new faults with earthquakes, for example. So, we are always learning something new about the dangers that we could face. It’s clear that risks are evolving and growing, and the correlations are challenging, especially with secondary perils, with climate change. And it’s not just the ‘normal’ attritional risk – correlation; it’s also the correlations on the longer tail of the probability curves. To have a wildfire in winter is something really new linked with previous drought.”

In terms of what clients want heading into 2026, Montador noted stability in their reinsurer panels.

“They don’t like the opportunistic players, and they prefer across the board players. They know that it’s more a buyer’s market. They do not react strongly, even if they felt a little bit shocked in 2023. Perhaps the reinsurance market could have reacted less in 2023, in order to say, okay, this is what we really need, let’s do it in two years’ time.”

Montador also discussed technology, emphasising that he’s a strong believer in tech and innovation and the arrival of Gen AI.

“It has to be done taking into account privacy and security. We train our people with Gen AI, with Microsoft copilot, and also with other tools in order to, for example, enhance delivery and make it faster. They say it can save up to 30% of the time. This is good, because we need to react quickly. It’s not obligatory to be among the first to adopt a new technology, but at least we have to be quick in adopting the maturing technology. “And, Gen AI is a very good tool for knowledge management and to be able to incorporate all the knowledge.

Montador is also a strong believer in data and notably big data, which is vital for insurers and reinsurers.

“Now, you don’t have only a small portion of data aggregated to the reinsurers, the full, very thin, granularity data could be given to the reinsurance underwriter. And this granularity and cleaner granularity could, in fact, provide more capital in a way, because you have smaller boxes of risk area, and you can better manage your exposure. And that’s what we do.

“We also have an exposure management tool where we do rollover of our cat portfolio every day. And so, we can also price, have the marginal pricing of the portfolio, which is very important to have during the renewal process.

“We also have a life activity, and the servicing in life activity is also using software and a kind of SaaS as a service within our clients. And being able to give quotation very quickly about non-standard risk, with also medical doctor advisors, to quote a specific life product, for example,” he said.

To end, Montador discussed evolving risk patterns including catastrophes, geopolitical risks, and cyber.

“We have to cope with second events, so an event just after another previous event. This is clearly true for earthquake, but it is also true for big windstorms. And so, it’s all about correlations, in fact. We learn more and more with climate change in the very tail risk. And so, the correlations are not the same than on the attritional part of the claims. We have progress to make on that.

“Secondary perils, as they are called, are very important, because now it’s the largest part of the cat losses and not only for property. Even now you can have a wildfire due to motor tpl, and so we have to be careful on other lines of business as well, including L&H with heatwaves and pollution. We need to be able to take some buffer in our quotations, to take what is, in fact, unknown, and to make loadings,” said Montador.

“On geopolitical and trade tensions, I see protectionism measures as a stress for reinsurance. These have impact on economies and financial markets, impacting our balance sheets and needs for capital. About sanctions taken by different countries, these are understandable on the one hand and we have to cope with this as existing reinsurers being aware that counter-measures can be taken by other countries.

“It’s also good to remember that reinsurance is by definition an international business with competitors from everywhere. And in Europe, we have to be careful with too stringent over-regulation measures. It’s very difficult for newcomers to cope with the new regulations or capital requirements. Maybe it’s an explanation why there is no newcomers,” he added.

“With emerging risk like cyber, which we think is still emerging, we try to learn more before having an active underwriting. In Europe, the level of data has nothing in common with the level of data in the US, and the market is largely in the US. You have big corporates that have cyber insurance because the financial markets want them to have cyber insurance. They also put pressure on their suppliers in order for them to have a cyber product as well. So, the resilience is growing, but there is lots of progress to do in the SMEs. For us, we privilege existing clients with an across the board philosophy, across different lines of business, including explicit cyber, we say yes so long as cyber insurance is sold with prevention measures and crisis management,” concluded Montador.

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This shift raises a critical question for the reinsurance sector: can market discipline be maintained when other segments are experiencing price declines?

Barrington said: “In many ways, this year feels like last year. The CAT season was mild, and so far, this year has been too. At that time, the market was striving to maintain firm pricing, while brokers and buyers were beginning to question whether the hard market was easing. That sentiment seems to be resurfacing.”

However, he noted a key difference: “This year, the backdrop has changed significantly. In both insurance and facultative reinsurance, prices have dropped substantially across nearly all lines. So, while last year’s question was whether the industry could retain discipline, this year’s is whether it can do so when other pillars of the market are facing major price reductions.”

Barrington acknowledged that the current market remains profitable, with strong investment returns allowing carriers to absorb the pricing pressures. Yet he cautioned that a loss of discipline could lead to compromises on retentions and broader coverage terms.

“It’s largely about retention,” he said. “Although it’s early, there seems to be an acceptance—even among carriers—that pricing will decline. But that’s not their main concern. What they’re keen to avoid is loosening retentions or expanding coverage too much.”

He stressed the importance to carriers of maintaining discipline, especially as the market potentially enters a softening phase. The current environment, he said, offers sufficient returns and product stability to allow for some softening without immediately threatening profitability.

“If you’re a treaty carrier, you’re likely seeing prices start to fall but are still expecting continued profitable underwriting. That will change quickly if discipline is lost. When pricing drops and coverage broadens and retentions shrink, profits can erode rapidly,” Barrington warned.

He concluded, “Discipline will always be important. Pressure will come from clients, and from us as brokers, to secure broader coverage and lower retentions. The balance will be interesting to watch.”

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After meeting with reinsurers, insurers, and brokers, Citizens Bank’s view is that speculation of a widespread soft market is overstated, as property remains profitable and capital continues to flow into the sector.

Citizens Bank noted that the property catastrophe segment is increasingly favourable to buyers, especially if the rest of the wind season is uneventful.

Supply is outpacing demand, leading to price reductions of around 10% at recent renewals, with the potential for steeper declines of 15–20% by year-end if no major events occur.

Even so, Citizens Bank states that current pricing still supports above-target profitability, making property catastrophe one of the most rewarding lines for reinsurers. This explains why third-party capital is expanding, with 2025 earnings likely to roll into 2026.

From an investment standpoint, Citizens Bank believes reinsurers heavily concentrated in property may face investor caution, while insurers buying significant catastrophe protection are more likely to be viewed positively.

Citizens Bank also observed that reinsurers are cautiously reintroducing aggregate-style products, though in a more disciplined and selective manner than in past cycles.

While many reinsurers insisted they will maintain strict terms and conditions, brokers indicated that some are already open to aggregate-like structures, particularly for key relationships. Citizens Bank interprets this as a pragmatic shift: reinsurers are searching for growth but remain committed to ensuring returns stay attractive.

In conclusion, Citizens Bank emphasises that the market is not entering a broad soft phase. Property catastrophe pricing may continue to ease, but profitability remains strong, capital is abundant, and investor interest persists.

The upcoming renewal season is shaping up to be competitive for buyers, yet still rewarding for reinsurers with disciplined strategies.

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Sponsored by AM Specialty Insurance Company (ASIC) and PwC, the 2025 Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous Executive Roundtable was our third, and began with an overview of the current reinsurance market environment, and whether trends can be sustained heading into next year.

“The current market, I think everyone would be in agreement, is a hard market, and there are many facets that play into that,” said Shevawn Barder, Founder and CEO of ASIC. “There’s the cost of money, the economic cost. In the US, you have inflation. Even if you take as a bellwether the admitted market in the United States, and you look at personal lines as an example, you’re seeing homeowners insurance doubling in costs, and you’re seeing car insurance prices increasing incredibly. Even that capacity is limited. You have the California wildfires; you have the litigation coming out of the California wildfires. You have inflation running at over 3%. You have an inflationary cycle in the rest of the world. You have geopolitical discontent.”

All of these factors, explained Barder, feed into the risk transfer space because the essence of insurance is that it creates stability in society, and is a necessary commodity to create stability in the economy.

“So, personally, when I look at it from my perspective, I think that the market will hold. There are elements, pockets within the overall equation that might temper or soften. But I think generally, from my perspective, being an E&S CEO in the US market, we expect consistency in the market to hold. I don’t expect any dramatic change this year,” added Barder.

For the most part, roundtable participants agreed that although the market is softening it is still hard, with opportunities to innovate in a healthy and competitive landscape.

“I think that the reinsurance industry is in a very healthy position. If you look at capital levels, it’s extremely healthy. It is beating its cost of capital quite nicely. And so, I think it’s with that background and perspective that we consider why it might be softening. Still, it remains in a very healthy and competitive position at this time,” said Matt Britten, Partner, Insurance at PwC.

He went on to note that the majority of reinsurers recognised that the action the sector took in 2023 has been the reason for solid profitability, not because there’s been an absence of losses.

“The favorable environment has been achieved because they drove for rate, they firmed up terms and conditions, they moved away from providing earnings protection. All of those actions have resulted in returns that are adequate, beating the cost of capital, but not far exceeding the cost of capital,” continued Britten.

Alongside the softening hard market and the outlook for the January property and property cat renewals, which drew comments on the cost of capital, investment income, attachment points, aggregate protection, frequency risks, rising annual insured losses from natural disasters, and the need for innovation, the casualty sector was debated by participants.

One participant said that it was very challenging to know where we are in the casualty cycle, with optimism from the primary insurance side but a fair amount of pain still being felt on the reinsurance side, while another highlighted the potential role of the insurance-linked securities (ILS) sector in casualty.

On the day, participants also commented on capital raises and the notable lack of new market entrants, which some suggested has helped to maintain discipline and market hardening. Here, ILS and alternative capital structures such as sidecars and catastrophe bonds were discussed again, as this side of the market continues to expand alongside the traditional space.

Later in the roundtable, the conversation turned to technology and the potential influence of AI, including how to balance advancements with talent development and the need to retain talent, and participants also offered some thoughts on the MGA sector.

One of the main themes from our annual Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous Executive Roundtable was finding the right balance, in terms of earnings but also between what reinsurers want to sell and what clients want to buy. Arguably, balance was the word of the day, and it was interesting to hear the thoughts of re/insurers, brokers and the advisory side of the market as to what balance means for them as the reinsurance industry approaches year-end, with 2025 poised to be another robust year of profitability for the sector.

For this year’s Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous Executive Roundtable we were joined by the following participants:

• Shevawn Barder, Founder & CEO, AM Specialty Insurance Company.
• Matt Britten, Partner, Insurance, PwC.
• Amanda Lyons, CEO, Aon Reinsurance Solutions, Bermuda.
• Martin Boreham, Director of Underwriting, Head of Liability & Active Underwriter, Africa Specialty Risks.
• Chirag Shah, Global Head of Casualty, Gallagher Re.
• Jennifer Paretchan, Global Head of Distribution and Market Relations, Guy Carpenter.
• David Govrin, Group President & CEO Global Reinsurance, SiriusPoint.
• Marc Haushofer, Executive Director, International Business Development, VIG Re.

Stay tuned as we’ll be releasing the full 2025 Reinsurance News Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous Executive Roundtable, sponsored by AM Specialty Insurance Company and PwC, in the coming weeks, which will include more commentary from our sponsor and valuable insights from all of the other participants.

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Supercede is an independent reinsurance platform designed to simplify complex workflows and improve outcomes across the reinsurance value chain. With a suite of continuously developed software tools, its advanced technology tackles the key challenges faced by reinsurance practitioners.

In an interview with Reinsurance News during RVS 2025 in Monte Carlo, Rose said brokers are increasingly recognising a massive opportunity in Supercede. The company is able to handle “table-stakes” tasks that are essential but don’t differentiate brokers to clients.

“You’re not going to choose a broker because they organise your submission data. That’s supposed to be easy, right? It just isn’t,” said Rose. “So, what they focus on is how do they make that part of the process as quick and painless as possible? And the way they’re finding that is with Supercede, and then how do we come and add way more value than anybody else is in our specific areas of strength?”

He cited Lockton Re as an example. The broker integrates Supercede with its solutions and analytics tools, allowing all of that data work to be done efficiently before going straight out to market, unlike other brokers who “spend 80% of their time fiddling about with data and only 20% of the time getting you the best deal.”

Rose explained, “Using our advanced analytics, we figure out how you’re actually going to get the best terms and so on in your placement and then we have our whole team fully focused on outcomes.”

He said that Supercede essentially works with all brokers. “Brokers use Supercede on their clients’ behalf, and a few of them have us in a collaboration mode, where both the brokers and the clients and Supercede work together on the data submissions, working on how should we do our limit banding, how should we do our stacking aggregations and so on?”

Rose explained that the company has seen steady growth since launch, with opportunities to expand with existing clients each step of the way, while also gaining access to new clients.

He said, “For some clients, they don’t want to be overcharged for their reinsurance, and so they work with us on getting their submission data clean and crisp. For other clients, they really want to just have an intelligent way to manage their reinsurance portfolio, to have this live view of everything that’s going on.”

He also highlighted the step change in API adoption over the past few years, which enables data to be sent seamlessly from one party to another or from one system to another.

“AI, obviously, is at the early-ish stage in terms of where that could go, but towards the maturing and much more common stage now, APIs are properly available and work brilliantly. I think that’s probably the unsung hero of the modern reinsurance technology stack — APIs are now actually a thing, and people are actually using them. They’re actually working.”

Looking ahead, Rose said the company is now extending its focus to back-office workflows.

“We’ve uncovered recently what it’s like for those who unfortunately work in the back office world. The guys who get handed a slip or something and are asked, can you stick this in a system? Can you work out how claims should be paid, how premiums should be allocated? They’ve been doing that without any access to the data before. So, we’re now feeding information to many of our clients, but also trying to go beyond that in a few ways as well. So, I’m really, really excited about using that information and the fact that clients are able to structure their portfolio data as a base level of data hygiene, the insurance information ready to go.”

For example, Rose referenced the AIG-Blackstone deal, stating that they spent approximately 30,000 hours modelling and preparing everything to pull off that deal.

In response, he said, “You should be able to get your data sorted so that all of the reinsurance submission information is consistent across every line of business, across every peril, etcetera. You could do that deal just straight off the cuff.”

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Discussing all things legacy, Hernon explored a wide range of topics, noting that global non-life run-off reserves surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time last year, and outlining the key factors driving this growth.

“At the forefront is the recognition by the live market of the benefits the legacy market can provide to it,” Hernon explained.

He noted increased restructuring of underwriting, the ongoing need to release capital, and more intermediaries seeking to create transactions, but stressed that recognition remains the main driver.

Touching on whether he sees demand for run-off solutions accelerating in certain lines of business, Hernon said, “My view is that the demand is predominantly because of capital reasons. I am not sure there is a common theme amongst which lines that are brought to market. It depends on the underwriting direction of the company seeking a legacy transaction. In response to your question, the answer is no.”

We also asked Hernon what types of legacy deals are currently seeing the most activity, and why.

He responded, “We are seeing more Loss Portfolio Transfer (LPTs). We have two Part VIIs going through the legal process that morphed from LPTs, as we did not buy the entity, or they were branch offices of an overseas insurer. There have been a few captive acquisitions; these are a result of a redomicile issue or mergers.”

Hernon went on to highlight how deal structuring at his firm has evolved to accommodate increasingly complex portfolios, noting, “More people – we have recently increased our M&A department by threefold. Technology is having a wider use, including AI.

“We are also in discussions to further enhance our AI ability. These changes will assist the development of more complex structures, particularly in dealing with green risk (new years), which we do not write. Innovation in deal structure is definitely on the increase.”

Closing the interview, Hernon reflected on the biggest opportunities for growth in the legacy space over the next 5–10 years, stating, “MGAs (i.e. when they begin to stop writing). ILS will continue to grow, within those markets that have been slower to accept the existence of legacy solutions and still see the market as bad news.”

Carrick Holdings is a specialist run-off and legacy solutions provider, focusing on the acquisition and management of discontinued insurance and reinsurance portfolios.

The firm helps insurers, reinsurers, and captives release capital and reduce operational burdens tied to non-core or discontinued lines of business.

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Siddiqui noted that a $100 billion event today is not what it once was, as much of those losses are no longer sitting with reinsurers.

“They’re being taken by ILS, cat bonds, sidecars, all sorts of stuff, going straight into the capital markets,” he said. “So that $100 billion event, which in the past would have eroded balance sheets, today could be — could be — an earnings event.”

He added that, based on modelling by Moody’s Insurance Solutions, if Hurricane Andrew were to occur today, insured losses would likely exceed $100 billion. Such an event, he said, would tighten market conditions and likely trigger a return to a hard market.

Siddiqui said, “We would see tightening, but more importantly, it would give a return to a hard market, because we have to remember rates are actually still quite high. And it might be that we see rates increasing in the top layers, whereas the middle layers may continue to stay where they are. I think a lot of the softening that we’ve seen is probably in the top layers so far — those risk-remote layers — so I think that might go back up.”

Eck highlighted that there have been over $100 billion in natural catastrophe losses annually for five consecutive years.

He said, “It seems like companies have been able to navigate fairly well, just in terms of where pricing has gone and what the attachment points are — pushing a lot of that loss to the primary companies.

“But when you do have those big tail hurricane events, there’s going to be a higher proportion going to the reinsurance market, which would then flow back into ILS and retro. It’s hard to say, but there’s a lot of capital.

“A lot of them also have primary businesses and other things that they do. Having that diversification is certainly helpful.”

During the interview, they also spoke about Moody’s recent outlook revision on the global reinsurance sector to stable from positive, explaining why it changed and what factors could shift it back to positive — or to negative.

Siddiqui explained, “We had a positive outlook on reinsurance last year and that was driven by the fact that we had upward momentum on property cat rates. We had seen year-over-year increases, and now we’re in this period of a softening market. So rates are coming off between five and 10%, but although that’s coming down a little bit, our view is that rates are still very adequate. There’s still a lot of margin available for reinsurers to earn out, and we think that will remain the case for 2025 and 2026. Whilst there is some decline in property prices, casualty prices continue to strengthen and firm up, although adequacy of those prices is uncertain. So although those prices have gone up quite a bit, it’s still hard to say whether they are sufficient, given the latency issue.

“Other things supporting our view on the stable outlook are interest rates and investment income — those are still very, very supportive. So companies’ earnings are considerably supported by investment income. And then, last of course, as a rating agency, is capital.”

In terms of what could shift the outlook back to positive, Siddiqui said that in the first place, a positive outlook from Moody’s is very rare, with last year being the first time in 15 years that the agency had one for the sector.

“You need a confluence of everything going right and no dark clouds. So I think the main issue is the softening market. And if we have a really large loss, it will have to be a material loss — I wouldn’t put a number on it — but something really high to have rates go back up,” he said.

Eck continued, “It seemed like the California fires had no impact. I thought that combined with the hurricanes last year would have provided more support, maybe it provided some, but it still came down.”

On the other hand, regarding a change in outlook to negative, they said they are mostly watching attachment points and terms and conditions.

Siddiqui stated, “I think if we start seeing erosion in terms and conditions and a lowering of attachment points, that is when you start getting more concerned, because that’s when we would be back to the bad old days, with reinsurance companies providing earnings coverage beyond, say, balance sheet coverage. We’re nowhere near that. Certainly the conversations we’ve been having at this conference, and in the time preceding this, suggest the reinsurance market is disciplined and holding the line on attachment points and terms and conditions. But I think if those start to erode, interest rates decline, and competition intensifies, then we would go negative.”

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Gulbransen highlighted the significant changes over the past three or four years, noting that while pricing has been a frequent topic, the more critical evolution has been in terms and conditions.

He stated: “On the property side, it’s a market of opportunity, at least that is the way I would describe it. There’s been a lot of changes that have occurred in the last three to four years. Certainly, everyone talks about the hard market and the pricing change that occurred, but really the more material change was on terms and conditions.

“These changes have a meaningful impact on loss all the way through the entire food chain, from the insured who’s taking more risk, to the insurance companies to reinsurers. We believe the change in terms and conditions has created a much healthier environment for everyone that’s involved.”

While acknowledging that rates have softened from their peak, Gulbransen believes this is the best market he has experienced in his 30 years in the business.

The casualty market, however, presents a different picture. The executive noted that adverse development continues in lines such as commercial auto liability and other liability occurrence, requiring a more segmented approach and a focus on careful risk selection and pricing to achieve profitability.

“Despite challenging times, we do believe there’s opportunities to make money in the casualty space, but it’s down to risk selection and how you price the business,” Gulbransen commented.

When discussing the sustained discipline of reinsurance and the future of attachment points, Gulbransen emphasised that retentions need to be seen from two perspectives.

“First, occurrence retentions have moved up considerably over the last three years, and that was driven by market conditions including reinsures appetite, increase in TIVs/exposures, insurance to value, and if you looked at a consistent return time attachments, clients had to increase because of inflation,” the executive explained.

Adding: “My sense is that many carriers are comfortable with the current retention levels on a first event basis, but it’s really the accumulation of losses within their retention that concerns them.

“Accumulation of losses can stem from increase in secondary perils, to even multiple hurricanes. With increased occurrence retentions, naturally, any increase of loss within large retention can create sizeable net retain cat volatility that our clients are trying to manage and mitigate. So, I do think that retentions may come down, but it may not be first event retention, it may just be that second subsequent event retentions decrease. That’s what I predict in the next 12 months.”

Looking ahead to the capacity supply-demand balance for the upcoming 2026 renewals and beyond, Gulbransen anticipates that supply will outpace demand.

However, he also suggested that changes to models and a desire for additional limits could prompt clients to seek more coverage.

“I expect that many of reinsurers will look to deploy increased capacity to their existing client base first, and then look to new attractive partnerships to deploy this additional capacity. I think this sort of strategy will lead to continued discipline in this hard market softening phase of the market,” he added.

Concluding: “Barring anything outside of expected happening this year yet, we will see capacity out strip demand into 2026. I think this is largely due to insurers and reinsurers feeling confident that we are coming off an incredibly attractive market, and there’s great returns available in the market for everyone as we enter 2026.”

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The analysts stated that while recent feedback from Monte Carlo has suggested that a light season would add pressure to pricing in US property catastrophe lines, the earnings uplift from minimal losses could be significant.

J.P. Morgan’s analysts observed, “In our view, a light season would more than outweigh the additional pricing pressure that would likely follow a benign Atlantic hurricane season.

“We examine several scenarios if the season continues to be light, and estimate that if catastrophe losses are 20% of normal Q3 budgets, this could lead to a 6-13% potential uplift to reinsurers’ earnings for 2025.”

The firm added that companies could also choose to bolster reserves if this scenario plays out, which would add a further layer of resilience against the soft market.

“If we use a 20% cat budget utilisation scenario, this is roughly equivalent to 2.5 percentage points of 2026E P&C Re revenues, which shows a light season’s potential to further smooth the impact of the reinsurance cycle. If the season is ‘normal’, which we see as being in excess of $30 billion of losses, then we would expect prices to reduce at a similar level to 2025,” J.P. Morgan added.

However, J.P. Morgan’s analysts stated that while the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet, this can change rapidly.

The firm’s analysts continued, “The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is 10 September each year. With this date in the rear view mirror, hurricane activity has been quiet in 2025 to date in the Atlantic.

“Hurricane Erin was the only major hurricane of the year, and this did not cause any serious damage given its path. The season was forecast to be active, but this reflects a forecast of three major hurricanes (anything below this level rarely causes major damage), which is broadly in line with historical norms.

“Looking back at the last five years, only 2022 has seen lower levels of storm formation at this stage of the season.

“We would note that 2022 did end up spawning Hurricane Ian, which made landfall at the end of September 2022 and ended up being one of the costliest events of all time, driving a material hardening of the reinsurance market.”

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