Speaking at the global forum for terrorism risk pools and their stakeholders, Gallagher framed his remarks around the idea that disruption has always been a constant.

Reflecting on Sydney’s history, he pointed to both its colonial past and more recent economic transformation, before turning to the present day. He described the current environment as one of “profound change, risk and dislocation,” echoing the World Economic Forum’s characterisation of a “polycrisis” where multiple risks compound.

Within that context, Gallagher said terrorism continues to evolve in both form and impact. “We know that in such stress, bad faith actors, motivated by grievance, lash out against the world. Their tool is terror,” he said.

Referencing incidents from Sydney and beyond, he noted that while terrorism is not new, its manifestation is changing, with actors increasingly blending into organised criminal networks to enhance “their resilience, financial resources, and operational reach.”

Gallagher drew on analysis from Guy Carpenter and Marsh’s latest terrorism risk research to trace the evolution of threat actors from hierarchical organisations in the 1990s to “digitally connected cells in the 2000s,” then “dispersed ideological networks in the 2010s,” and now “interlinked state and non state actors.”

At the same time, he said, the nature of attacks has shifted from large scale property damage to incidents focused on people, with “increased frequency, more moderate severity, and a wider array of variation in targets, weapons, and tactics.”

Motivations, he added, now range widely, from religious and political drivers to “nihilistic fury,” while the tools available to attackers have expanded to include cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, drones and encrypted communications. Gallagher warned that cyber attacks in particular will increasingly move beyond data breaches towards the disruption of critical infrastructure, affecting “transport, health, electricity, water, banking or any of the systems we depend on.”

For the reinsurance sector, this creates a far more complex and interconnected risk environment. Gallagher said reinsurers must now navigate “an increasingly complex risk landscape where traditional models must evolve to capture new threat vectors,” including cyber terrorism, political violence and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear risks.

Against this backdrop, he positioned reinsurance as a key component of societal resilience. “We are part of the antidote to terror,” Gallagher said, arguing that the sector’s role is not only financial but structural. “Our work in reinsurance is about the economic systems and structures that help individuals, businesses and communities bounce back,” he said, pointing to both the immediate and longer term economic consequences of attacks.

Gallagher linked this directly to the legacy of the September 11 attacks, which he described as a defining moment for the industry. He noted that the event reshaped the understanding of terrorism risk and led to the creation of public private solutions such as the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, which established a federal reinsurance backstop in the United States. This, he said, demonstrated how governments and industry can work together to “stabilise markets and protect economies.”

A central focus of Gallagher’s address was the development and ongoing importance of terrorism reinsurance pools. Reflecting on their origins, he said they emerged from the recognition of a “market failure or protection gap,” when private insurance capacity alone proved insufficient to meet demand. Over time, however, their role has expanded significantly.

“What began as a response to a specific shock has become a dynamic platform for managing an ever changing risk landscape,” Gallagher said. He highlighted how many pools have broadened their scope to include not only traditional terrorism risks but also chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats, alongside business interruption and cyber terrorism.

He pointed in particular to recent legislative changes in Australia to include state sponsored terrorism within the pool’s remit, noting that this “matters enormously in a world where the line between a rogue individual and a hostile state actor is increasingly hard to draw.” This clarity, he added, helps provide policyholders with appropriate protection while allowing insurers to innovate around defined coverage boundaries.

Gallagher also stressed the scale of capacity that pools bring to the market. He noted that traditional terrorism treaty reinsurance capacity is around USD 4 billion for a programme, compared with USD 100 billion available through TRIA and more than USD 10 billion provided by Australia’s pool. This disparity underlines, in his words, “the importance of the pools in providing terrorism capacity to support the community and business.”

He reinforced this point by referencing the scale of past losses, noting that the World Trade Center attack remains the costliest terrorism event in history, with losses exceeding USD 40 billion at the time and significantly more in today’s terms.

A key technical theme running through Gallagher’s speech was the importance of retrocession in underpinning these structures. “Central to this evolution is the importance of retrocession protection,” he said. “By securing appropriate retrocession, pools can manage peak exposures, protect their balance sheets and maintain the reinsurance market to support terrorism.”

Without access to sufficient retrocession, Gallagher warned, the ability of pools to absorb large losses and provide consistent capacity would be “significantly diminished.” He added that this layer is becoming even more important given the current geopolitical environment and the potential for more systemic and correlated losses.

Gallagher also explored how terrorism pools are evolving to meet future challenges. He pointed to increasing interest in alternative risk transfer solutions, including parametric products, as well as growing investment in data analytics and probabilistic modelling to support more accurate pricing and risk assessment. These advances, he said, are helping to facilitate investor confidence and broaden the sources of capital available to the market.

He highlighted the role of capital markets through the issuance of catastrophe bonds, citing examples such as the UK’s Pool Re and France’s GAREAT. These transactions, he said, are bringing new investors into the terrorism risk space and “putting more distance between the taxpayer and potential loss.”

In addition, Gallagher noted that some pools are investing in risk reduction initiatives, including partnerships with governments to enhance counter terrorism capabilities and encourage businesses to adopt protective security measures. He also pointed to the expansion of cyber terrorism coverage as a reflection of the growing importance of digital threats alongside physical attacks.

Looking ahead, Gallagher cautioned that any reduction in government support for terrorism pools would need to be carefully managed. Any material change, he said, should be gradual and clearly signalled to the market to avoid disruption and ensure that adequate capacity remains available.

He concluded by emphasising that terrorism risk remains inherently systemic and requires sustained collaboration across the public and private sectors. IFTRIP, he said, plays a vital role in facilitating that collaboration, providing a forum where pools, policymakers and industry participants can share insights and develop coordinated responses.

Ultimately, Gallagher’s message was that terrorism reinsurance pools, supported by strong retrocession and public private partnerships, are not simply mechanisms of last resort. They are, as he put it, “proven strategic tools” that enable markets to function, support economic resilience and ensure that protection remains available in an increasingly uncertain world.

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The report highlights that modern terrorism threats have evolved from hierarchical, property-focused assaults to dispersed networks employing diverse tactics, including cyberattacks, political violence, and emerging nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological (NBCR) threats.

Recent low-sophistication physical attacks, like the 2025 New Orleans truck ramming and the Bondi Beach assault, reveal the significant human and business cost.

At the same time, terrorism-related cyberattacks are halting supply chains and amplifying economic disruption by crippling critical systems and global operations, demonstrating the dual threat of modern terrorism.

“This shift demands adaptive risk management strategies and insurance solutions that address emerging threats,” Marsh states.

Despite these challenges, the insurance and reinsurance markets continue to demonstrate resilience; standalone policies often provide broader coverage terms, and re/insurers are able to offer per risk capacity between $1 billion to $4 billion, depending on the location(s) insured and insurer aggregation positions, the report said.

Total capital for the combined US insurance and reinsurance market contemplating all perils, including terrorism, was estimated to be approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025.

Central to this stability in the US is the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA), which provides a vital federal backstop and is set to expire at the end of 2027.

By sharing catastrophic losses between the public and private sectors. Its framework limits insurers’ exposure through individual deductibles and industry-wide thresholds, enabling insurers to offer terrorism coverage with greater confidence and predictability.

“This federal support is essential for maintaining insurer capacity, protecting balance sheets, and promoting competitive pricing across commercial lines, particularly as terrorism risks expand beyond traditional urban centers,” Marsh explains.

The report underscores that public-private partnerships – often appearing as terrorism risk pools – are essential for global economic continuity.

These public-private partnerships blend government regulation and resources with private insurers’ expertise, fostering custom solutions like standalone terrorism and political violence policies, captive insurance, and coverage for nonphysical/cyber damage.

They also aid in establishing reinsurance to fill protection gaps and attract alternative capital.

Tarique Nageer, Terrorism Placement Advisor, Marsh Risk, said: “Heightened geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing US–Iran conflict, are driving an increasingly complex and evolving terrorism threat landscape that is blurring the lines between terrorism, political violence, and civil unrest.

“TRIPRA has been instrumental in creating and maintaining re/insurance market stability, and its reauthorization is vital to enable us to continue having nuanced, solutions-based conversations with clients about their unique vulnerabilities as emerging threats to businesses around the world evolve at a rapid pace.”

Emil Metropoulos, Terrorism Center of Excellence Leader, Guy Carpenter, added: “Together, TRIPRA and other public-private partnerships around the world form a more balanced and sustainable ecosystem that anchors systemic risk, fosters greater market confidence, and broadens available protection for policyholders.

“This collaborative approach not only mitigates the financial impact of terrorism but also strengthens national resilience, ensuring that businesses, workers, and communities are better protected against the multifaceted and evolving terrorism risks of today and tomorrow.”

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According to a new report from the rating agency, the key concern is not only the likelihood of attacks but also how losses may accumulate across multiple insurance lines.

Morningstar DBRS noted that incidents of terrorism and political violence can trigger claims simultaneously across property, marine, aviation, and business interruption policies.

The agency also highlighted that distinguishing between terrorism, sabotage, cyber incidents, and acts of war is becoming increasingly difficult, potentially increasing the likelihood of coverage disputes.

The report explained that the global market for terrorism and political violence insurance is highly specialised and concentrated among a small group of insurers and managing agents, often provided through Lloyd’s of London syndicates and specialty carriers.

“Political violence policies typically provide broader protection than stand-alone terrorism insurance, covering risks such as sabotage, riots, civil commotion, insurrection, and politically motivated strikes. Coverage limits and large commercial risks often reach several hundred million dollars through layered placements involving several insurers,” the report said.

As expected, demand for these policies typically rises during periods of geopolitical tension and social unrest.

According to the rating agency, amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, businesses with international exposure, including multinational corporations, airlines, logistics operators, infrastructure owners, and hospitality groups, may reassess their risk management strategies and seek broader coverage.

At the same time, a prolonged geopolitical crisis could prompt insurers to revisit pricing and coverage terms, with politically sensitive assets potentially facing higher premiums or reduced limits.

Morningstar DBRS thus emphasised that reinsurers play a central role in shaping the availability and cost of terrorism and political violence coverage.

“Reinsurers such as Munich Re, Swiss Re, Hannover Re, and SCOR SE provide significant capital support to specialty insurance markets. Their underwriting appetite directly influences the capacity available to primary insurers writing political violence risks.

“If geopolitical tensions persist or escalate, reinsurers may respond by tightening underwriting standards, raising attachment points, or limiting capacity for certain high-risk exposures. This would increase retention levels among primary insurers and likely lead to higher premiums for policyholders.

“Reinsurance may also reassess their accumulation exposure across multiple insurance lines and geographic regions. Managing accumulation is a key focus for reinsurers during periods of geopolitical instability.”

Marcos Alvarez, Managing Director, Global Financial Institution Ratings, Morningstar DBRS, commented, “We believe that the global insurance sector’s strong capitalisation and diversified underwriting base should limit the immediate impact of the geopolitical escalation.

“Nevertheless, prolonged hostilities could increase underwriting volatility and lead to tighter conditions in certain specialty insurance markets, particularly for assets perceived as politically or strategically sensitive.”

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In terms of the size, the £2.75 billion of retro reinsurance protection secured through this 36 month placement is unchanged from the 2025 renewal, and for 2026 was placed with 65 international reinsurance companies.

The programme provides reinsurance for property damage resulting from acts of terrorism certified by the UK Government, and includes chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear events, as well as damage caused by remote digital interference. For 2026, the programme has been expanded to include cover for non-damage business interruption, sub-limited to £25 million.

Pool Re’s retro programme transfers risk to the private market and is designed to ensure every business in Great Britain has access to affordable and comprehensive terrorism insurance. The terrorism reinsurer offers commercial property reinsurance cover for losses caused by terrorism on an “All Risks” basis, offering a financial safety net for more than £2 trillion of assets belonging to businesses of all sizes in the region.

Jonathan Gray, Pool Re’s Chief Underwriting Officer, said: “This marks another successful milestone for the business. It’s very encouraging to have received such strong support from reinsurers, with a number of partners increasing their capacity. The strong market reception reinforces our conviction in our strategy and in our role as the ultimate backstop against terrorism for the UK Commercial Property market.”

“We are delighted to have completed yet another successful renewal of our retrocession programme with the invaluable support of Guy Carpenter. Backed by a record number of retrocession partners, the programme remains a core part of our strategy to return risk into private hands and thereby distance the UK taxpayer from loss following a major terrorism event. In bolstering Pool Re’s capital position and safeguarding Members’ funds the programme also ensures that Pool Re is well placed to provide resilience to the UK economy should it ever be needed,” said Tom Clementi, Pool Re’s Chief Executive Officer.

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The move marks a further step in HIVE’s evolution into a multi-class specialty MGA, strengthening its knowledge-led underwriting proposition.

The expansion into PVT will be underpinned by advanced technology. Following the appointment of George Stylli as Chief Technology Officer, HIVE has accelerated investment in digital infrastructure and underwriting capabilities.

The PVT team will benefit from sophisticated triage and exposure management systems, enhanced data architecture and dynamic threat assessment tools, reflecting the disciplined approach HIVE applies across its aviation war portfolio.

By combining specialist underwriting expertise with intelligent data infrastructure, the business aims to enable faster decision-making, clearer risk visibility and stronger portfolio control from day one.

Under Harmer’s leadership, HIVE will establish a focused PVT offering centred on disciplined risk selection, data-informed underwriting and close alignment with brokers and capital partners.

The division will concentrate on specialist segments of the political violence and terrorism market where underwriting insight and structural expertise are key to sustainable performance.

Harmer joins HIVE from Atrium Underwriting Group Ltd., where he served as an underwriter. He brings extensive experience in the political violence and terrorism market, alongside strong broker and capacity relationships across the global specialty sector.

In June 2025, HIVE expanded into space insurance with the appointment of Jack Kenneally as Class Underwriter. In January 2026, the MGA announced its expansion into specialty marine insurance with the appointment of Nick Lewis as Marine Chief Underwriting Officer, effective July 2026.

Bruce Carman, CEO of HIVE Underwriters, said, “Political Violence & Terrorism is a highly nuanced class where underwriting judgement, geopolitical insight and structural discipline are critical. In today’s volatile environment, brokers and clients need partners who combine specialist expertise with rigorous exposure management.

“As we expand into PVT, Stuart will be supported by advanced triage and exposure management systems, enhanced data architecture and dynamic threat assessment tools, reflecting the disciplined, technology-enabled approach we apply across our war and aviation portfolio. That combination of deep expertise and intelligent aggregation control gives us real confidence in our ability to manage accumulation risk and respond swiftly to emerging threats.

“The addition of PVT is a natural step in HIVE’s evolution as a multi-class specialty MGA. We deliberately build complementary lines around exceptional underwriters, providing them with the autonomy, technology and aligned capacity to create resilient, high-quality portfolios. Stuart is widely respected for his technical expertise and disciplined approach, and we’re very much looking forward to supporting him as he establishes a distinctive, knowledge-led PVT platform within HIVE.”

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ARPC explained that this reflects its current assessment of portfolio risk, prevailing reinsurance market conditions, and the protection provided by the $10 billion Commonwealth guarantee under the Terrorism and Cyclone Insurance Act 2003.

ARPC’s accumulated net assets support the terrorism pool, and the 2026 retro program sits above its retention, designed to protect the pool’s net assets in severe but plausible loss scenarios.

The 2026 program includes a diversified panel of global reinsurers. The ARPC met with 35 reinsurers across Australian and international markets as part of the renewal process.

For 2025, ARPC secured a reduced $2.15 billion of terrorism retro, so the size of the program has come down again for 2026, while the deductible has increased.

This 2026 renewal aligns with recent legislative amendments to expand the scheme to include state-sponsored terrorism, ensuring ARPC’s risk transfer arrangements reflect the updated scope of coverage.

Dr Christopher Wallace, Chief Executive, ARPC, commented, “Retrocession is a prudent risk management tool that helps protect ARPC’s balance sheet and maintain confidence in the scheme.

“We purchase private reinsurance where it represents value for money and supports the long-term sustainability of the pool. The 2026 placement reflects a disciplined approach in current market conditions.”

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The declaration made by the Treasurer activates the provisions of the Act relating to eligible terrorism losses, and overrides terrorism exclusion clauses in eligible contracts. This means businesses will be able to claim any damages arising from the attack in line with their policy terms and conditions.

The TRP is operated by the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (the ARPC), which has confirmed that the reduction percentage for this declared terrorism incident has been set at 0%, meaning no reduction will apply to eligible insurer liabilities for the purposes of reinsurance recoveries under the TCI Act.

The ARPC provides reinsurance coverage for commercial property, business interruption, and public liability insurance against terrorism catastrophe losses. It is backed by a $10 billion Commonwealth guarantee, which ensures the financial capacity to support insurance companies and policyholders following a declared terrorism event.

“The Terrorism Reinsurance Pool exists to safeguard the Australian insurance market from the financial impact of rare but severe terrorism events. Today’s declaration ensures insurers can apply the TCI Act provisions and begin assessing eligible claims under the framework of the scheme,” said ARPC Chief Executive, Dr. Christopher Wallace.

“We are deeply saddened by the tragic incident that occurred at Bondi Beach. Our thoughts are with the families who have lost loved ones, the survivors, and everyone affected by this event,” added Dr. Wallace.

The Bondi beach terror attack has become Australia’s worst mass shooting for decades, after two armed men killed at least 15 people at a Jewish celebration on Sunday December 14th, with more than 20 people still in hospital, according to mainstream news reports.

The severity of the event saw the ICA declare the shooting a significant event, thereby prioritising insurer support for those making claims and enable claims data to be collected and tracked.

The ICA encourages businesses to get in touch with their insurance firm or broker to understand what they may be able to claim for.

“Our thoughts first and foremost are with Australia’s Jewish Community in this time of great mourning for the victims of Sunday’s horrendous attack. The industry is committed to supporting those Bondi businesses impacted through the recovery ahead,” said ICA CEO, Andrew Hall.

The ARPC has provided some guidance to assist in assessing potential losses and preparing for reinsurer engagement.

“All insurer clients are requested to notify ARPC of any potential claims or losses arising from the Bondi Beach incident as soon as possible.

“A terrorism exclusion in eligible policies has no effect to a loss or liability in the event of a declared terrorism incident. Insurers have the responsibility to assess, adjust and pay any claims on eligible policies in accordance with all other original policy terms and conditions,” states the ARPC.

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At its annual Market Event, Pool Re brought together experts from across the risk industry, where discussions shone a spotlight on the UK’s vital SME community and its unpreparedness in the face of terrorism.

The conference underscored the urgent need to drive adoption of proactive terrorism risk management measures to help mitigate potential physical and financial impacts on SMEs.

Speakers included the UK Minister of State for Security, Dan Jarvis; Jon Savell, Deputy Assistant Commissioner Specialist Operations for the Metropolitan Police Service; Neil Coyle, MP for Bermondsey and Old Southwark; and Air Marshall Edward Stringer CB CBE. They were joined on stage by Pool Re’s CEO, Tom Clementi; Chief Underwriting Officer, Jonathan Gray; and Angela Knight CBE, Chair of the Pool Re Board.

The event also marked the launch of Pool Re’s flagship paper: The Threat Posed to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, which explores the current terrorism threat to SMEs and outlines practical steps businesses can take to manage terrorism-related risks.

Tom Clementi, Pool Re Chief Executive Officer, said, “When Pool Re was set up in 1993, our mandate from the Government was to make terrorism cover accessible and affordable for all businesses in Britain. However, with estimates that only 5% of SMEs are covered today, there is clearly some way to go. Thanks to our modernised reinsurance scheme introduced in April 2025, we are now in a position to offer our Members significant discounts to reinsure their SME portfolios where they can demonstrate they have reintegrated terrorism cover into their commercial property policies for SMEs as a matter of standard practice. If Members reintegrate cover at scale, which over time we are confident they will, the UK’s economic resilience to terrorism will have been significantly bolstered and the market will have been returned to the position it found itself in prior to the IRA’s mainland bombing campaign of the early 1990s.”

Security Minister, Dan Jarvis, added, “In an era of increasing threats to our UK security, prosperity and values, it is more important than ever that we plan to meet these challenges. Pool Re is recognised around the world for its expertise and is as much a part of our counter-terrorism architecture as the security services and law enforcement. Knowing that Pool Re is there is profoundly reassuring.

“Small and medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of our economy, yet their lack of terrorism cover marks a vulnerability that threatens our national economic resilience. Pool Re’s efforts in tackling this gap remain utterly essential.”

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This assessment comes from a new report, ‘Beyond the Blast: Capital Management of Tomorrow’s Terror Threats’ report, launched by Lockton Re, the reinsurance arm of the world’s largest privately held broker, in partnership with Blackthorn, an advisory practice specialising in malicious risk.

For years, the terrorism class has been considered a stable book of business for reinsurers, largely due to the existence of government backstops and the focus on traditional, blast-based scenarios.

However, experts now believe this predictability has evaporated. Niki Whitley, Director at Blackthorn, said: “For a reinsurance market primarily concerned with major loss events, acknowledging that further change is inevitable raises important questions about the validity of long-standing assumptions around terrorism events that underpin scenario modelling and pricing.

“As threats continue to evolve and associated impact severity (from an insurance perspective) remains dynamic, traditional processes could become increasingly misaligned with the realities of the risk transfer environment.”

The report identifies five key drivers accelerating this change:

• Strategic competition and the state–non-state nexus
• Political and social polarisation
• Technological innovations and regulatory gaps
• Climate change
• Convergence of established risk categories

The biggest threat, according to the report, lies in the interconnection of these factors. Alex Theodosiou, Blackthorn’s Research Manager, warns that threats are now “mutually amplifying.”

He stated: “Simply presupposing that future events will mirror the past can be dangerous in an increasingly nonlinear world. As highlighted, threats are increasingly interconnected and mutually amplifying – from cyberattacks that cascade into physical infrastructure failures to climate events that exacerbate social unrest and political violence.

“For reinsurers, the challenge lies in identifying fundamental changes that could alter core modelling assumptions before significant losses materialise.”

To meet the evolving change, the report calls for a shift in how the industry approaches risk modelling and data quality.

It looks at current standardised practices and issues concerning: exposed limits by radius, using model ‘what-if’ scenarios, issues around data for geocoding, building characteristics and emerging realistic disaster scenarios.

George Wragg, Senior Cat Modeller, Lockton Re, explained: “Deterministic WTPV (War, Terrorism and Political Violence) models, which simulate realistic ‘what-if’ bombing scenarios based on blast radius and damage gradients, offer a more accurate and nuanced view of portfolio risk compared to a traditional 100% PML approach.

“Ultimately, leveraging deterministic scenarios helps secure better-informed terrorism reinsurance strategies by aligning them more closely with realistic risk profiles. Modelling capabilities need advancement, and to take advantage of future development, investment in data quality now will enable quicker adoption, resulting in more accurate loss estimates.”

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In this role, Francis will focus on enhancing operational efficiency within the International War and Terrorism team, working closely with management, claims, actuarial, and product development departments to provide in-depth analysis and auditing of services.

Based in Markel’s London office, she will report to Ed Winter, Director of Terrorism at Markel International, and support the organisation’s heads of region across Asia, the UK, and the U.S. in developing new initiatives to drive efficiency.

Francis will also collaborate with broking partners to enhance risk assessment, streamline processes, and strengthen underwriting relationships to offer a seamless experience and reinforce Markel’s position in the political violence (PV) market.

She joins Markel from Hiscox, where she spent the past six years, initially serving as an Operations Technician, before being promoted to Senior Operations Technician and later Operations Team Manager in October 2021.

Winter commented, “We’re continuing to see the PV market face heightened demand amid rising global instability and increased scrutiny in the PV space. With Clarice on board, she’ll bring an exciting new dynamic to the team, enhancing our offering for clients and brokers.”

“Clarice will be pivotal in not only strengthening the team’s ability to manage complex risks more effectively, but also in developing new efficiencies within our global team and deepening broker relationships to bring innovative ideas and projects to fruition.

“This will ensure we can continue delivering more tailored solutions for our clients, as a best-in-class insurer in the political violence market, especially through times of geopolitical instability.”

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